The story
From signal to outcome in one morning
Illustrative walkthrough of the evidence → decision → outcome loop — not a claim of always-on live execution.
9:02 AM
Signal detected
Lead quality dropped 22% across paid search in the last 48 hours.
FACT · LIVE
9:03 AM
Evidence surfaces
Top-of-funnel volume is up 35% but conversion rate fell. New broad-match keywords are driving unqualified traffic.
FACT · DETERMINISTIC
9:10 AM
Decision Canvas opens
Three paths projected: cut broad match, rebalance to exact match, or hold and monitor. Each with expected outcome and confidence.
PREDICTION · MODELLED
9:14 AM
Balanced path selected
Rebalance spend from broad to exact match. Projected +12% lead quality recovery, 82% confidence. Stop rule: revert if CPA rises >15%.
DECISION · MANDATE
9:15 AM
Mandate set
Max spend movement: $2,400/day. Hard ceiling on CPA increase. Auto-pause if stop rule triggers. Approved by VP Marketing.
CONTROL · ENFORCED
Day 5
Outcome measured
Lead quality recovered +10%. Within projected range. CPA held steady. Calibration score updated — this org’s predictions are now 3% more accurate.
OUTCOME · VERIFIED
